← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178246

Israel military action against Lebanon on September 4?

70.0% implied · bid 50.0¢ · ask 90.0¢

The market prices this at 85.0%, up 12.5pt over 24h, on a 40.0¢ spread.

Implied probability85.0%

Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 70.0¢

Spread40.0¢ (57.1%)

Change 24h+12.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 49% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$115

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance49% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 10.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean10.65

RSI (14, hourly)73.1

Realized vol 7d2.18pt

Change 1h+7.00pt

Resolves in 0d 7h.

Time to resolve0d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%