← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178730
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 33.4%, up 1.6pt over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability33.4%
Bid / ask / mid36.0¢ / 37.7¢ / 36.9¢
Spread1.7¢ (4.6%)
Change 24h+1.60pt
Change 7d-12.40pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,031
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$850 / $1,288
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 86 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.43
RSI (14, hourly)86.3
Realized vol 7d2.34pt
Change 1h+0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.