← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178739
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (8.7%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+6.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$809
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$450 / $442
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.61
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.66pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.