← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178748
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 63.2%, up 8.3pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability63.2%
Bid / ask / mid64.9¢ / 65.8¢ / 65.3¢
Spread0.9¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+8.30pt
Change 7d-22.80pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$778
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$305 / $1,436
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 99 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.92
RSI (14, hourly)98.8
Realized vol 7d4.24pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.