← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4189413

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?

21.5% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 23.0¢

The market prices this at 21.5%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability21.5%

Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 23.0¢ / 21.5¢

Spread3.0¢ (14.0%)

Change 24h-3.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$13,482

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13 / $195

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score35.1 / 100

RSI 30 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.87

RSI (14, hourly)29.6

Realized vol 7d7.74pt

Change 1h+1.00pt

Resolves in 9d 6h.

Time to resolve9d 6h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%