← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4189414

Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?

34.0% implied · bid 32.0¢ · ask 36.0¢

The market prices this at 32.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability32.0%

Bid / ask / mid32.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 34.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (11.8%)

Change 24h+5.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 19% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$260

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$198 / $209

Imbalance19% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score30.2 / 100

RSI 61 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.30

RSI (14, hourly)61.1

Realized vol 7d3.02pt

Change 1h+1.50pt

Resolves in 8d 5h.

Time to resolve8d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%