← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4189415

Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?

27.0% implied · bid 26.0¢ · ask 28.0¢

The market prices this at 6.0%, down 17.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability6.0%

Bid / ask / mid26.0¢ / 28.0¢ / 27.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (7.4%)

Change 24h-17.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$40

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$101 / $180

Imbalance6% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.1 / 100

RSI 20 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.62

RSI (14, hourly)19.5

Realized vol 7d3.57pt

Change 1h+0.50pt

Resolves in 9d 7h.

Time to resolve9d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%