← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4189416

Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?

17.0% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 18.0¢

The market prices this at 17.0%, down 7.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability17.0%

Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (11.8%)

Change 24h-7.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$51 / $94

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.1 / 100

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.13

RSI (14, hourly)25.0

Realized vol 7d5.05pt

Change 1h-2.50pt

Resolves in 9d 7h.

Time to resolve9d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%