← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4189935

Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?

91.0% implied · bid 90.0¢ · ask 92.0¢

The market prices this at 89.0%, up 35.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability89.0%

Bid / ask / mid90.0¢ / 92.0¢ / 91.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (2.2%)

Change 24h+35.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 60% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$18,293

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$27 / $282

Imbalance60% bid

Large trades (>$1k)3

Liquidity score40.2 / 100

RSI 72 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean4.05

RSI (14, hourly)72.3

Realized vol 7d10.96pt

Change 1h+44.00pt

Resolves in 11d 7h.

Time to resolve11d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%