← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4189936

Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?

83.5% implied · bid 72.0¢ · ask 95.0¢

The market prices this at 86.0%, up 33.5pt over 24h, on a 23.0¢ spread.

Implied probability86.0%

Bid / ask / mid72.0¢ / 95.0¢ / 83.5¢

Spread23.0¢ (27.5%)

Change 24h+33.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 73% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$130

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance73% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.77

RSI (14, hourly)58.2

Realized vol 7d7.48pt

Change 1h+27.50pt

Resolves in 26d 7h.

Time to resolve26d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%