← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4190736
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?
23.5% implied · bid 23.0¢ · ask 24.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.0%, flat over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,469
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$273 / $1,238
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.78
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d3.25pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 23h.
Time to resolve2d 23h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%