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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4199436

Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?

19.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 21.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 19.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 19.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$92
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$167 / $41
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 57 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.52
RSI (14, hourly)57.1
Realized vol 7d5.02pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 117d 5h.

Time to resolve117d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth