← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4199440
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.3%, up 1.7pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.
Implied probability15.3%
Bid / ask / mid15.4¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.2¢
Spread1.6¢ (9.9%)
Change 24h+1.65pt
Change 7d+4.45pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$200
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$66 / $235
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 72 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.61
RSI (14, hourly)72.3
Realized vol 7d0.54pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 0h.
Time to resolve73d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.