← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4336174
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 47.0%, down 33.5pt over 24h, on a 38.0¢ spread.
Implied probability47.0%
Bid / ask / mid32.0¢ / 70.0¢ / 51.0¢
Spread38.0¢ (74.5%)
Change 24h-33.50pt
Change 7d+9.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 23% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$10,354
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance23% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 3 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.22
RSI (14, hourly)2.8
Realized vol 7d2.66pt
Change 1h-33.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 5h.
Time to resolve438d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.