← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4338139
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 59.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability59.0%
Bid / ask / mid57.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 58.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 19% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$81
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$98 / $499
Imbalance19% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.31
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d0.29pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 346d 4h.
Time to resolve346d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.