← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4338140
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 69.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability69.0%
Bid / ask / mid68.0¢ / 69.0¢ / 68.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$313
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,262 / $1,977
Imbalance28% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.55
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.25pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 5h.
Time to resolve438d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.