← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4338142
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 64.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability64.0%
Bid / ask / mid63.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 64.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.1%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 21% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$114
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$576 / $682
Imbalance21% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.34
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.37pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 407d 5h.
Time to resolve407d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.