← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4385925
Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.0%, up 35.6pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.
Implied probability97.0%
Bid / ask / mid96.0¢ / 98.2¢ / 97.1¢
Spread2.2¢ (2.3%)
Change 24h+35.60pt
Change 7d+41.10pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 88% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$3,841
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$191 / $1,520
Imbalance88% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 96 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.48
RSI (14, hourly)96.4
Realized vol 7d4.45pt
Change 1h-0.40pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 0h.
Time to resolve8d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.