← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4385926
Will Blue and White win 0.75-1.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.4%, down 33.3pt over 24h, on a 2.3¢ spread.
Implied probability2.4%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 2.9¢ / 1.8¢
Spread2.3¢ (131.4%)
Change 24h-33.30pt
Change 7d-27.80pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,458
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2 / $26
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score38.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 10 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.08
RSI (14, hourly)10.5
Realized vol 7d3.09pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 0h.
Time to resolve8d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.