← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4391801
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be less than -0.3%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.0%, up 9.7pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid31.9¢ / 34.0¢ / 33.0¢
Spread2.1¢ (6.4%)
Change 24h+9.70pt
Change 7d+11.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$781
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$28 / $21
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.93
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d2.61pt
Change 1h+3.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 43d 0h.
Time to resolve43d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.