← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4391802
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between -0.3% and -0.1%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 30.0%, up 14.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 36.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (11.1%)
Change 24h+14.50pt
Change 7d+8.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,209
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$47 / $54
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.30
RSI (14, hourly)81.8
Realized vol 7d2.29pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 43d 0h.
Time to resolve43d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.