← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4391804
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 7.9¢ spread.
Implied probability1.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 8.9¢ / 5.0¢
Spread7.9¢ (159.6%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7d-9.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 11/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3 / $2
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 35 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.24
RSI (14, hourly)34.7
Realized vol 7d2.78pt
Change 1h-2.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 43d 0h.
Time to resolve43d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.