← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4393415
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the December interest rate announcement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.4%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability1.4%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 1.3¢ / 0.9¢
Spread0.7¢ (73.7%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d-0.30pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$711
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $10
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.48
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.02pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 50d 0h.
Time to resolve50d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.