← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4393425
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the December interest rate announcement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.4%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability1.4%
Bid / ask / mid0.3¢ / 0.7¢ / 0.5¢
Spread0.4¢ (80.0%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d-0.80pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$711
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5 / $25
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 7 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.69
RSI (14, hourly)7.1
Realized vol 7d0.03pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 50d 0h.
Time to resolve50d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.