← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4599732
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 63.0%, up 13.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability63.0%
Bid / ask / mid63.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 64.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.1%)
Change 24h+13.50pt
Change 7d+2.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$10,419
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,108 / $2,265
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score41.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 95 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.10
RSI (14, hourly)95.5
Realized vol 7d1.26pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1169d 5h.
Time to resolve1169d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (60)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.