← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4620250
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,615
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$681 / $777
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 62 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.81
RSI (14, hourly)61.5
Realized vol 7d0.52pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.