← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4640848
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid4.8¢ / 5.6¢ / 5.2¢
Spread0.8¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h-0.10pt
Change 7d-18.85pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$50,188
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,098 / $502
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score46.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 72 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.52
RSI (14, hourly)71.8
Realized vol 7d0.40pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.