← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4641065
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 81.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability81.0%
Bid / ask / mid81.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 81.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$154,869
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$33,929 / $803,956
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)20
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.35
RSI (14, hourly)80.0
Realized vol 7d3.78pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 10d 22h.
Time to resolve10d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.