← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4662693

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

9.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 10.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 10.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%

Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d+0.00pt

Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 77/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$133,693

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$48,004 / $16,129

Imbalance8% bid

Large trades (>$1k)5

Liquidity score77.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 19951741361532.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean19951741361532.34

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 438d 5h.

Time to resolve438d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskhigh (85)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.