← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4662997
Will the UK Budget include a wealth tax?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.0%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability5.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 5.4¢ / 3.9¢
Spread3.0¢ (76.9%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d-1.60pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$22 / $17
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.36
RSI (14, hourly)52.7
Realized vol 7d0.25pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 9d 4h.
Time to resolve9d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.