← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4662998
Will the UK Budget include a land value tax?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 2.8¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.0¢ / 4.8¢ / 3.4¢
Spread2.8¢ (82.4%)
Change 24h-0.25pt
Change 7d-11.60pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$20 / $2
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 16 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.00
RSI (14, hourly)15.8
Realized vol 7d0.68pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 9d 4h.
Time to resolve9d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.