← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4688838
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.6%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability4.6%
Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 5.0¢ / 4.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h-0.80pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$44,079
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,584 / $932
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score46.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 36 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.42
RSI (14, hourly)36.4
Realized vol 7d0.49pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.