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US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?

95.5% implied · bid 95.0¢ · ask 96.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 95.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability95.0%

Bid / ask / mid95.0¢ / 96.0¢ / 95.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.0%)

Change 24h+1.50pt

Change 7d+16.00pt

Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 24% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$18,611

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$106,051 / $380,211

Imbalance24% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.24

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.51pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 12d 0h.

Time to resolve12d 0h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskhigh (85)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.