← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4797667
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d+10.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$803
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$144 / $192
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.96
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.99pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.