← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4797668
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 27.0¢ / 26.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (7.7%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d+10.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$765
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$309 / $526
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.55
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d2.03pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.