← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4797672
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.9%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability6.9%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.1¢ / 6.6¢
Spread1.1¢ (16.8%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d+2.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$955 / $785
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.00
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.