← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4824666
Will Together be in the next Israeli government?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 51.0%, up 13.0pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid44.0¢ / 51.0¢ / 47.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (14.7%)
Change 24h+13.00pt
Change 7d+11.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$210 / $306
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.20
RSI (14, hourly)65.2
Realized vol 7d3.08pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 254d 0h.
Time to resolve254d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.