← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4824669
Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 52.0%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 38.0¢ spread.
Implied probability52.0%
Bid / ask / mid43.0¢ / 81.0¢ / 62.0¢
Spread38.0¢ (61.3%)
Change 24h+4.50pt
Change 7d+7.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.79
RSI (14, hourly)53.7
Realized vol 7d3.46pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 254d 0h.
Time to resolve254d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.