← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4824670
Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 58.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability58.0%
Bid / ask / mid58.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 58.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+2.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$234
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$800 / $508
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.61
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.87pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 254d 0h.
Time to resolve254d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.