← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4841695
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 87.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability87.0%
Bid / ask / mid77.0¢ / 83.0¢ / 80.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (7.5%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 23/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 29% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$326
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,924 / $2,301
Imbalance29% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score22.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.91
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.67pt
Change 1h-4.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.