← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4844532
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.2%, down 1.9pt over 24h, on a 4.1¢ spread.
Implied probability3.2%
Bid / ask / mid2.0¢ / 6.1¢ / 4.0¢
Spread4.1¢ (101.2%)
Change 24h-1.95pt
Change 7d-4.45pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,260
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7 / $15
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score29.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.46
RSI (14, hourly)46.6
Realized vol 7d0.63pt
Change 1h+2.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 0h.
Time to resolve23d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.