← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4844534
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by October 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, down 2.3pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.1¢ / 1.3¢ / 0.7¢
Spread1.2¢ (171.4%)
Change 24h-2.25pt
Change 7d-2.25pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$174
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $278
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 16 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.59
RSI (14, hourly)16.1
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 0h.
Time to resolve23d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.