← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4867451
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability9.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-6.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,380
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,389 / $445
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.31
RSI (14, hourly)57.1
Realized vol 7d0.46pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 0h.
Time to resolve12d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.