← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4867452
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 41.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability41.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 42.0¢ / 41.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 24% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,764
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,447 / $4,078
Imbalance24% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score48.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 68 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.90
RSI (14, hourly)68.4
Realized vol 7d0.80pt
Change 1h+2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 0h.
Time to resolve73d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.