← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4881548
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 88.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability88.0%
Bid / ask / mid88.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 89.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+11.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 31% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$12,907
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$413 / $15,236
Imbalance31% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score47.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 74 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.54
RSI (14, hourly)74.3
Realized vol 7d1.12pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 0h.
Time to resolve5d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.