← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4890262
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.2%, down 1.3pt over 24h, on a 3.8¢ spread.
Implied probability17.2%
Bid / ask / mid8.4¢ / 12.2¢ / 10.3¢
Spread3.8¢ (36.9%)
Change 24h-1.30pt
Change 7d+9.15pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 32/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,454
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14 / $1,170
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score31.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.57
RSI (14, hourly)54.3
Realized vol 7d1.47pt
Change 1h+1.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 0h.
Time to resolve6d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.