← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4890264
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 41.0%, down 6.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability41.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 40.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-6.00pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$744
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,898 / $522
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.67
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.56pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 0h.
Time to resolve6d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.