← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4890265
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d-14.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$788
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$974 / $604
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.51
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 0h.
Time to resolve6d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.