← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4906128
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$50,880
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,557 / $2,010
Imbalance28% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score47.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.41
RSI (14, hourly)60.7
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 42d 5h.
Time to resolve42d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.