← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5074920
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.4%, up 2.3pt over 24h, on a 2.8¢ spread.
Implied probability9.4%
Bid / ask / mid8.3¢ / 11.1¢ / 9.7¢
Spread2.8¢ (28.9%)
Change 24h+2.30pt
Change 7d-3.65pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$18,657
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$498 / $219
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score36.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.27
RSI (14, hourly)61.2
Realized vol 7d0.57pt
Change 1h-2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.